FPL Gameweek 4 Preview: A statistical look at the season so far.
After three gameweeks, an international break can be a tough time if your FPL is going well, but for some, it might be a welcome break if things have been going poorly.
I am very much middle of the road. I have had one great week, one bad week and one decent to average week.
Later in this edition, we'll examine the statistical standouts of the year so far, and I will provide my analysis.
International Break: Winners
Erling Haaland scored in both games against Finland and Moldova. In the second game, he really starred, scoring five goals and providing two assists.
Reece James started both games for England, which is great to see for the injury-prone defender. He was a part of two clean sheets and provided an assist against Andorra.
Mikel Merino played 180 minutes across two Spain games and scored four goals, which included a hat-trick against Turkey.
Pape Mater Sarr scored in both of his games for Senegal, having been a keen player for Spurs for the opening three games of the season.
International minutes by club
1/ Liverpool 2251 mins
2/ Arsenal 1659 mins
3/ Nottingham Forest 1409 mins
4/ Spurs 1265 mins
5/ Sunderland 1247 mins
The reigning Premier League Champions and current leaders are way out in front with minutes played over the international break. It was in this game last season when Arne Slot lost his first game against Nottingham Forest.
The surprising one is newly promoted Sunderland, who feature with the fifth most minutes, especially as a lot of those minutes came through a lot of players travelling to Africa.
FootyComps competition of the week
Thanks to our partners for this season footycomps.com who run amazing football competitions on a weekly basis. This week, in one of their competitions, you can win your club’s shirt for just £1.
Must be 18+ and UK based to participate.
Injury news
William Saliba: He was substituted after five minutes against Liverpool and will miss up to a month with an ankle injury.
Ismailla Sarr suffered a hamstring tear and it will take weeks for him to return.
Nicolas Fullkrug has picked up a new calf injury and his status is currently unknown.
Stats corner
Expected Goals (xG)
Erling Haaland- 3.88 (3)
Ismaila Sarr- 2.0 (2)
Antoine Semenyo- 1.88 (2)
Bruno Fernandes- 1.88 (1)
Enzo- 1.82 (2)
Erling Haaland has by far the most expected goals of any player in the league, with 3.88, and he is the only player in the league to have scored three goals. He is also yet to receive a penalty, while fourth and fifth on the list have hit their xG heights thanks to their penalties taken. Bruno Fernandes has taken two penalties and therefore only has 0.26 non-penalty expected goals.
Expected Assists (xA)
Jack Grealish- 1.29 (4)
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall- 1.22 (1)
David Brooks- 1.18 (1)
Bryan Mbeumo- 1.09 (0)
Estevao- 1.04 (1)
Grealish has stunned the league with his assist record across his two starts, picking up two in each game, but when we look at his xA, it comes out at only 1.29, despite being top of the league. Dewsbury-Hall is also near the top of the list for xA, but compared to Grealish has three fewer assists. Everton are not known for their chance creation, so it will be very interesting. xA isn’t always the best indicator as a stat, remember, Mohamed Salah picked up 18 assists last season from 9.06 xA.
Clean sheet probabilities for GW4
Arsenal 47.6%
Newcastle 44.9%
Liverpool 44.0%
Crystal Palace 42.1%
Chelsea 35.1%
Dicover the rest here
Implied Goals for GW4
Liverpool 2.33
Arsenal 2.15
Newcastle 2.04
Man City 1.97
Chelsea 1.88
Discover the rest here
Goalscorer probabilities for GW4
Isak 60.8%
Haaland 57.5%
Salah 56.5%
Gyokeres 55.6%
Ekitike 51.2%
*If the player starts
Discover more here
GW4 Team Reveal
I am rolling once again! I have saved all of my transfers so far and am building towards big plans for a mini-wildcard (5 transfers in one go in the coming weeks).
Triple Captain Salah feels like a risk at this point with his form, but there is one thing in life that I always know. Salah is at his best when he is underrated.